Value Investing & Valuation

Forward P/E

Forward P/E is a stock's current share price divided by the earnings per share that analysts expect the company to report over the next 12 months (or the next fiscal year). It works like the ordinary P/E ratio, but the bottom half is a forecast instead of a past result. The forecast usually comes from a consensus, the average of the estimates published by several analysts, and those estimates are revised often as new results and news arrive.

Worked example

Say Company A trades at $60 per share. It earned $3.00 per share over the last 12 months, and analysts expect $4.00 per share over the next 12 months. Trailing P/E = $60 ÷ $3.00 = 20. Forward P/E = $60 ÷ $4.00 = 15. If the forecast is later cut to $3.50, the forward P/E at the same $60 price becomes $60 ÷ $3.50 = about 17.1. The price did not move, only the estimate did.

Why it matters

Forward P/E lets you compare the price with the profit a company is expected to make, which matters when earnings are growing, shrinking or recovering from a one-off hit. Its weakness is that the number depends on forecasts: estimates are revised often, analysts can be too optimistic or too pessimistic, and different data providers may use different estimate dates. A forward P/E well below the trailing one only says that higher earnings are expected, not that they will arrive. Treat a gap between the two as a question to look into, and check how the estimates have moved over recent months.

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Frequently asked questions

Not necessarily. Trailing P/E uses reported results, which are facts but look backwards. Forward P/E looks ahead but rests on estimates that can be wrong and are revised often. Many people read the two side by side rather than choosing one.

Usually from a consensus, the average of the earnings forecasts published by the analysts who follow the company, collected by data providers. The number can differ between providers because of timing and which analysts are included.

Because the earnings estimate in the bottom half can be revised. If analysts lower their forecast, the forward P/E rises at the same price. If they raise it, the forward P/E falls.